Arctic Ice Condition Index (ARCTICE) Plots
A partnership between Arctic Domain Awareness Center, University of Alaska Anchorage, Applied Physics Laboratory University of Washington, and Axiom Data Science
Project Summary
The Arctic Ice Condition Index (ARCTICE) is a mariner decision support tool for vessels sailing in the Arctic Ocean. The algorithm is based on the International Maritime Organization's Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS), which assigns risk categories to ships based on the ice thickness and the vessel's ice class. ARCTICE uses the partial sea ice concentrations from the High-resolution Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (HIOMAS) to produce a map of the risk index outcome values across the Arctic Ocean.
Instructions for ARCTICE users
ARCTICE communicates ice conditions in terms of vessel risk using the indexing method outlined in POLARIS. POLARIS quantifies the ice condition numeral by a "Risk Index Outcome" method (RIO). The calculated RIO values indicate the likely risk of a significant vessel-ice interaction during transit. The suggested thresholds for deciding whether a particular path is relatively safe are summarized in the table below. RIO values higher than 0 indicate a relative low risk of vessel and sea ice interactions. RIO values between 0 and -10 are indications that there is an elevated risk of significant damage to the vessel. For those vessels with a Polar Certificate and identified ice classification, the Polar Code suggests the vessel may still traverse this path with elevated risk conditions, but cautiously. For vessels with no ice class or those ice classes below Polar Class 7, sailing is not recommended unless there’s a special circumstance such as an icebreaker escort or other considerations. When an RIO value falls below -10, there are no Polar Class vessels that can safely transit through these conditions and an alternate path is suggested.
| RIO | Ice Classes PC1 - PC7 | Ice Class below PC7 or not assigned |
|---|---|---|
| RIO ≥ 0 | Normail sailing | Normal sailing |
| -10 ≤ RIO < 0 | Elevated sailing risk, proceed sailing with caution | Sailing subject to special consideration (i.e. sailing not recommended) |
| RIO < -10 | Sailing subject to special consideration (i.e. sailing not recommended) | Sailing subject to special consideration (i.e. sailing not recommended) |
Data Products
HIOMAS is run weekly on Axiom Data Science servers, and it takes ~1 week to complete. ARCTICE plots are produced immediately upon HIOMAS model completion. HIOMAS provides forecasts up to 28 days out, meaning that when a new ARCTICE product is produced, ~3 weeks are left in the forecast.
For each vessel ice class, ARCTICE produces daily forecast plots for the first 14 days along with 21-day and 28-day forecasts. The plots are provided as PDFs for the entire forecast run or as a ZIP file of georeferenced tif files. ARCTICE plots are available for the following ice classes: